Do people perceive population loss as a problem for their local community?

24 Apr, 2026

This data¹, from Sarah Eckhardt and Adam Ozimek, would suggest yes. When a community is shrinking locals know it and feel it in their daily lives.

The data show that local perceptions match demographic reality. Eighteen percent of respondents living in counties that lost population between 2010 and 2020 identified population loss as being a major problem for their community, versus 10 percent of those living in growing places. Including those who see it as a minor problem, 54 percent of respondents in declining counties view population loss as an issue, versus 34 percent in growing counties. ... Our survey results are consistent with all of these issues. Regression analysis shows individuals in shrinking places are more likely to report that vacancy, the availability of good jobs, and poor public service are a problem in their community, and the effect is statistically significant. School quality is directionally worse, though not statistically significant.

However, people living in shrinking places are the most averse to immigration.

Residents of shrinking communities are less likely to view immigration as a net positive for the local or national economy, and are less supportive of temporary seasonal migration and immigration designed to address labor shortages. They are less likely to support high-skilled immigration even if it is framed as supporting entrepreneurship.

Support for immigration remains lower among those living in shrinking counties when controlling for urban versus rural status, political affiliation, gender, and educational attainment, suggesting that other factors play a role.

The contradiction between recognizing population loss as a local problem and being more likely to oppose a viable remedy poses a real challenge for policymakers.

This is not unlike the case of East Germany, discussed earlier in this blog.

#depopulation